Should you be betting your money on Apple ?

Hi all,

The new ipad (ipad 3 as we call it.. I still wonder whay they did'nt name it that) was launched this month. They managed to sell 3 million in under a week. I kind of felt very low that day. The price of my ipad (ipad 2) fell by some 15k and if I had waited longer I could have got the "Retina displa" to woo my eyes. Hard luck.

Much like Bill gates said a decade ago at a dinner party when some powerful guys were talking about the presidential campaign - "I am as powerful as the president". Now we might think that he was just being cocky owing to his dream of having a desktop (running windows) on every desk was about to come true. Today the situation is quiet similar - the small difference is that the guy who could have boasted this is not alive.

Apple has grown in the past few years to be the largest company in the world today. I heard somewhere that it has more money than the Fed. It is well on its way to becoming a trillion dollar company.. Damn! thats like 12 zeros :). The cool thing about all this that, reporting Apples profit can undermine the fact that the US economy is not doing so well after all. Apple is today larger than the complete retail sector of US put together. Many of the hedge funds own apple shares and they have booked huge profits due to this position. Apple's stock has shown a rally in the past few years, growing by more than 83 % this year...

So far so good. But the question that would really trouble us (at least a rational investor) is whether this is just an another bubble.

It might be a good idea to take lessons from the 2000 dot com bubble. The big problem with all this is that Apple relies on innovation for these super-profits. The technology sector is a "Innovate and stand out" thing. However, how long will this go on. With the magic-in-chief Steve Jobs resting in peace, can apple sustain this long enough. The whole market is bullish on the Apple share. A call option will cost you a fortune today.The bubble is definitely growing and its a good time to make a short investment in the shares probably half an year - before apple runs out of out of the box ideas. According to me, its never a good idea to hold a position in any tech share for a long time because of the technological cycle.

The only market that Apple has a real say in is the Tablet market. It is losing out in the smartphone and the laptop arena. I mean your chances of finding a mac with someone, atleast in the Indian or Chinese market are really low - the simple reason is that even today computer is a luxury in developing nations - and Apple is really pricy when it comes to anything.

Although I have high regards when it comes to Apple products but I would rather not stay invested in the company for a long time. It is evident that we might have an emotional attachment towards Apple. They do bank on the loyalty of their customers. I mean the Tech talk they hold every now and then - "I have something and You really needs to see this". Just those words coming out of Tim cook is so catchy.

Anyways its not a bad idea to own an Apple product. They really have a lot of difference when it comes to what they offer you. Although the compatibility can really be a headache at times.

Adios.

On Sachin's hundered and foolish fans

And finally we have the 100th ton from the Little master. An year was definitely not worth the wait for many of us.. for many reasons. Three rare things happened on that fine day in Bangladesh -

1. Sachin got a 100th hundered.. which makes him stand heads and shoulder above everyone
2. Bangladesh defeated India convincingly
3. 1 & 2 happened in the same match.


I think it's sad that people are giving all sorts of reasons as to why Sachin should retire. Like he said - "No one remembers the 99 centuries that I made..Everywhere I went, all people could talk about was the 100th century which was yet to come" .. I think (including many other rationals) that he has earned the right to define his cricketing future. Even without going into the Statistics, I can say that Ponting and Lara would be way behind him..

Many of us might say that Sachin has become slower and this 100's are rarely the winning ones. What we forget here is the persistence and grit that he has shown for the past 23 years. He started playing when I was not yet born.. a time when the likes of Ponting and Clarke were still in teens. Consider Lara and his 400.. I don't think he ever played for his team more than for personal records. When it comes to Sachin, a team win is more satisfying then a double hundred and a century is nothing if the team loses. How many of us would be willing to go ahead with the career when we can safely quit - you have loads of money and loads of fans.

Its foolish to question the unfathomable passion of Sachin for the game. It is not us who decides on his Cricketing future, it is he himself who holds the steering.. just like he has steered the team to so many victories. Respect the man and respect his achievement. It is very easy to sit in front of a television and say that the straight drive was not perfect..It's easy to forget all those perfect pulls and hooks that he used to demolish the best bowling attacks of the world..Its easy to forget all those towering sixes that he hit against the best spinners in the world..Its easy to ignore how he was such a gentleman and managed to have a clean career in every aspect when the likes of Ponting, Warne and Dhoni managed to get into controversies..

What is not easy is to last for 23 years in competitive cricket..under the expectations of a billion fans who expect you to be a for GOD..someone who performs every time he is on the field..fans who are so irrational that they can forget 23 years of passion and performance just because you do poorly in a series..

The Mathematics of Love - Part 1

I had been thinking about this for a while. A 2 hour break in the morning between classes makes for a perfect setting. I don't know if there is this kind of work in the world somewhere done already.. I'll proceed anyway.

Okay, I would want to start with the very basics . Demand and Supply.

Demand for love (Pampering) is from the Guy's side. Supply of love is from the Girls side. To see how the supply function works (Girl showering it on the boy) focus on Graph below.

 Now this is pretty trivial and most of the guys (including me) would agree that it is never possible that the curve would be linear, leave alone bulge upwards. Diamonds are your typical point. Once she meets her best friends, she lets it loose. This is in stark contrast to what the boy expects when he is too naive about stuff. His expectation might look like something shown below.

There is no tipping point and the graph is that of an optimist. In most cases the graph will pass through the origin - unless you are George Clooney - in which case it's just a point (0,Sex). Being ugly means that the curve would be a lot flatter - and you would have to be filthy rich to reach the pinnacle.

I think I will stop here maybe.. maybe I will focus on monopolistic markets (IITs/Engineering colleges) next time. Till then have a nice time.

Bharat

What (can) make(s) Nerds so cool?

Hi all,


Since we are dealing with nerds I would first narrow down my focus to science. Then we have Physics, Chemistry and Maths. Although the first two of the sciences have numerous examples of nerds, I will focus on maths to exemplify their exploits.


I want to start with something that is very central to maths - Number theory. Even if you are studying arts, it is unlikely that you have not heard of Fermat and his last theorem. If not, here it goes:


No three positive integers a, b, and c can satisfy the equation aⁿ + bⁿ = cⁿ for any integer value of n greater than two.


That seems pretty simple right? If you are a nerd, you should stop here and start some number crunching. If you are a regular guy, continue.


The problem is simple but when you start doing the math (trust the nerds) you realize that it is difficult to comprehend. The problem is in-fact so complex that the math guys had to develop two separate branches just to prove it because Fermat was too proud to prove it. The reason cited was (he wrote this on the margin of his notebook) - " The space seems too small to write the proof. You better accept it!". I think he did try it out with large numbers - (9)^3 + (10)^3 = 1729. Missed by 1 ! ( 12^3 = 1728) and then gave up and wrote it as a theorem. That's one advantage you have when you are born in the 16th century and their is no one to question you. In essence Fermat stated -  "Hey, if I claim to discover some really stupid mathematical theorem and don't give the proof for it, then people will spend a shit-load of time over the next forever years trying to prove it."


But wait! Fermat is not the protagonist of this little story of mine. It is someone you probably haven't heard of -  Andrew Wiles. It would be interesting to note that many math greats like Gauss, Lame, Euler tried wrapping their heads around it. They proved it for some numbers and gave up. Gauss even said - "The problem is of little interest to me" - Ya right!. This went on for a good 300 years and then Wiles made it to the scene - who as a child dreamed of solving the theorem - What a wasted childhood it seems ! 


He used a conjecture given by a bunch of Japs and in 1993, put together some complex elliptic equations, developed a new branch in Mathematics, Introduced some new number system..and  at the Newton Institute in Cambridge declared that he had proved the Fermat theorem. He did not get the Noble prize for that - You don't get one just for doing something that helps you vent out your frustration due to a long struggle!


What I wonder is that -  Is their a simpler proof that lurks out there.. waiting for someone to stumble upon.. The proof given by Wiles cannot be the same as what Fermat had thought (if he ever thought of one).. because all this did not exist in that time..Maybe some day, some nerd will come up with it.. 


They say that "The fun is in not knowing". How many of us would dig deep in-to the conjecture or the equations that Wiles used to solve the theorem. We are in-fact just mystified (I hope) that he did something that many of u can't even dream of.  And yeah that's a classic example of a cool nerd who would get a lot of chicks - your typical debatable stereotype. 


Although he did not have a eureka moment while giving the proof-  Don't you think coolness is all around him?


Bharat